FYI: Attached is OPA's "Governors Political Briefing: Races 1999-2000."
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March 5, 2010
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM: MINYON MOORE AND ANDREW MAYOCK
SUBJECT: Governors Political Briefing: Races 1999-2000
This memo overviews the 1999-2000 gubernatorial races and reviews the current political situations in
affected states. Several "hot" issues developing in Alabama, Iowa and New Jersey are also examined
in more detail at the end of the memo.
1998 Elections: The 1998 elections left the overall gubernatorial situation largely unaffected. The
Republicans lost one governorship, but retained control of the top job in 31 states; and Democrats
continued to hold 17 governorships, plus four territories. Jesse Ventura became the first Reform Party
governor, and Angus King remains the only Independent governor. Despite what this straight
numbers analysis might indicate, the 1998 elections tell a much more dynamic political story.
Democrats suffered setbacks by losing open seats in the West -- Colorado, Nevada and Oklahoma -- in
addition to the critical Florida governship. But they also made key gains -- in the South with victories
by Hodges in South Carolina, Siegelman in Alabama and Barnes in Georgia, and in the West and
Midwest with Davis (CA) and Vilsack (IA), respectively.
1999-2000 Elections: In the next two-year election cycle 14 governships will come up for election - -
three seats in 1999 (Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi), and 11 seats in 2000 (Delaware, Missouri,
Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Utah, Washington and
West Virginia). It is early in the cycle, but no major realignment is expected to take place.
Incumbents are expected to run in all but five states: Mississippi, Delaware, Missouri, Montana and
North Carolina. In the best case scenario, Democrats could pick up two seats overall and solidify our
southern resurgence, if we held all seven incumbents seats, held on to the three open Democratic seats
in Missouri, North Carolina and Delaware and won the two Republican open seats in Mississippi and
Montana. Of the five open races in the 1999 - 2000 cycle, three will be closely followed--
Mississippi, North Carolina and Missouri -- and will be viewed as bellweathers of the political mood of
the country and the strength of the parties.
1999 GOVERNORS' RACES
In 1999, incumbents are expected to easily win in Kentucky and Louisiana. Mississippi is an open
seat and provides Democrats with a serious opportunity for a pick up.
Mississippi: Governor Kirk Fordice (R) is limited by state law from seeking a third term. Before
Fordice, Mississippi had not elected a Republican governor since 1874, and during both of his races
Fordice faced tough opposition. March 2 is the filing deadline, and to date, Lt. Gov. Ronnie
Musgrove (D) is the only big-name contender to officially declare his intention to run. Rep. Mike
Hex-Dump Conversion
Parker (R) is expected to seek the Republican nomination. This past Friday, we met with Musgrove
who is upbeat and strongly conveyed to us that he will run a moderate campaign.
Kentucky: In 1995, Governor Paul Patton (D) was elected with 51 % of the vote. Governor
Patton and Lt. Governor Steve Henry (D) filed their reelection papers on January 25. Patton
will not face any primary opposition in May and is expected to face a nominal challenge in the
general election in November.
Louisiana: Since his election in 1995, Governor Mike Foster (R) has consistently posted approval
ratings over 70. A Southern Media & Opinion poll conducted January 21-25 showed Foster
with a 79% job approval rating. The Governor raised nearly $2 million for his reelection campaign
this year, although he says that he has not yet decided whether he will run. To date, Rep. William
Jefferson (D) is the only Democrat who has announced his candidacy for the race.
2000 GoVERNORS' RACES
In 2000, four of the 11 governorships up for election are held by Republicans and seven are held by
Democrats. Of the four Republican seats, only one is expected to be open, while three of the seven
Democratic seats will be open. The four incumbent Democrats who are expected to run again are
O'Bannon (IN), Dean (VT), Shaheen (NH) and Locke (WA). Their seats appear to be "safe." The
three "safe" Republican incumbents are Schafer (ND), Leavitt (UT) and Underwood (WV). The three
open seats held by Democrats (Delaware, Missouri and North Carolina) may prove challenging to hold.
The open Montana seat provides Democrats with the best opportunity for picking up a currently
Republican held state.
Open Seats
Delaware: Governor Thomas Carper (D) cannot run in 2000, because of state-imposed term limits.
In 1996, he defeated state Treasurer Janet Rzewnicki (R), 70% - 31 %. Lt. Governor Ruth Minner (D),
is the only candidate to announce her intention to run for governor and already has raised over
$325,000 for her campaign. Other potential candidates include: Delaware Speaker of the House
Terry Spence (R); businessman and ex-Dupont executive Dennis Rochford (R); Chamber of
Commerce President John Burris (R); and Attorney General M. Jane Brady (R).
Note: Governor Carper is seriously considering a bid for u.s. Senate. Incumbent Senator
William Roth (R) has not announced his intentions for 2000, although most analysts expect him
to run for another term. At the request of the DSCC, Vice President Gore will call Governor
Carper this week to urge him to run. Former governor and current Representative Tom Castle
(R) will run for the Republican nomination if Roth does not, and he has not ruled out a primary
challenge to Roth, although it is unlikely.
Missouri: Outgoing Governor Mel Carnahan (D) is term limited and is running for the Senate
against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (R). Rep. Jim Talent (R) kicked off his campaign for
governor last week and plans to focus his campaign on lowering taxes, fixing public education
2
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and improving highways. Talent will face state Treasurer Bob Holden (D) in the general
election next year.
Montana: Montana offers Democrats one of their best opportunities to pick up a governorship.
Governor Marc Racicot (R), who is quite popular, is term limited. In 1992, he beat Dorothy
Bradley (D) 51 % - 49%. Racicot won in 1996, defeating Judy Jacobson (D) 79% - 19%. The
prospective Democratic candidates are all fairly strong candidates with good name recognition.
On the Republican side, no viable candidate has emerged from a field that is largely unknown
and at the far right of the party. To date, Secretary of State Mike Cooney (D) is the only
announced candidate for the governor in 2000. Other Democrats expected to join the primary
race are Attorney General Joe Mazurek (D) and State Auditor Mark O'Keefe (D). The primary
is slated for June 2000.
North Carolina: Governor Jim Hunt (D) is term-limited. In 1996, he defeated Robin Hayes (R)
56% - 43%. North Carolina is shaping up like recent races in Alabama and South Carolina, where the
lottery-education issue is at the center of the campaign. Lt. Governor Dennis Wicker (D) and Attorney
General Mike Easley (D), the leading potential Democratic candidates, support the lottery. All three
likely GOP hopefuls for governor are lottery opponents.
Democratic Incumbents
Indiana: In 1996, Governor Frank O'Bannon (D) came from behind to defeat Indianapolis Mayor
Steve Goldsmith (R) 52 - 47. He served as Lt. Governor for eight years under then Governor
Evan Bayh (D). He consistently posts approval ratings in the 70 s, and is in strong shape for his
reelection campaign next year. .
New Hampshire: Gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire are held every two years. Governor
Jeanne Shaheen in expected to run and win again in 2000. In 1998, she won a second term as
governor 65% - 35% over Jay Lucas. In 1996, she won a first term by defeating Ovide Lamontagne
(R) 57% - 40%.
Vermont: Gubernatorial elections in Vermont are also held every two years. Governor Howard
Dean (D), who first assumed office in '91, won his bid for reelection last November by defeating Ruth
Dwyer (R) 56% to 41 %. Dean served as DGA chair in 1997-98.
Washington: Governor Gary Locke (D-WA) faces reelection in 2000. He was first elected in 1996
by defeating his Republican opponent Ellen Craswell (R), 58% - 42%. Locke made history in 1996 by
becoming the nation's first elected Chinese-American governor. Locke has been a very popular
governor. To date, he faces no primary opponent. On the Republican side, 1998 senate nominee and
former Rep. Linda Smith is likely to run.
Republican Incumbents
North Dakota: While Gov. Edward Schafer (R) has not announced whether he will run in 2000,
it is likely that he will. In 1992, Schafer won the governship by defeating Nicholas Spaeth (D)
58% - 41 %. In 1996, Schafer beat Lee Kaldor (D) 66% - 34% to retain his seat.
3
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Utah: Governor Leavitt CR) is expected to run and win easily in 2000. Recently, he has emerged as
a strong voice of reform in the aftermath of the Olympic scandal. In 1996, Leavitt beat Jim Bradley
CD) 75% - 23% for a second term.
West Virginia: Governor Cecil Underwood CR) was first elected governor in 1956, making him
the nation's youngest governor at age 34. When he was reelected in 1996, he became the
nation's oldest governor at age 74. Former state tax secretary James Paige III (D) filed
pre-candidacy papers announcing his decision to run for Governor. Paige joins Rep. Bob Wise
(D) and Charleston Attorney Jim Lees (D) as the likely candidates in the race to unseat Governor
Underwood.
HOT ISSUES
We wanted to brief you on a few "hot" issues facing governors who do not face races in 1999-2000,
but which we felt should be noted for you.
Alabama: Governor Don Siegelman CD) defeated Fob James last November 58% - 42% to win his
first term as governor. The biggest question in Alabama right now is whether Siegelman will get
the education lottery on which he campaigned. The lottery will require a constitutional
amendment, and Siegelman will have a tough time getting a lottery special election bill passed by
the legislature when they convene next month. Religious and conservative groups are still very
much against the plan. On his first day in office, Siegelman signed an executive order .
instructing school administrators to begin the process of removing portable classrooms.
Iowa: In a dramatic come-from-behind race, state Senator Vilsack (D) defeated former Rep.
Jim Ross Lightfoot (R) 53% - 46% to become Iowa's first Democratic governor in 30 years. He
follows Governor Terry Branstad (R), who had served as governor since 1983.
A Des Moines Register poll conducted January 22 - 25 showed Governor Tom Vilsack's (D) job
approval rating is 57%, his disapproval rating is only 5%, while 38% were unsure.
The two hottest issues in the Iowa state legislature are education initiatives and
methamphetamine use. The Governor and the Legislature have agreed on a three-part school
finance package that includes a 4% increase in per-pupil spending for the 2001 budget year, a
guarantee that school districts with enrollment losses would be allowed to spend the same
amount next year on regular programs as this year, and accelerated state aid totaling $4 million
for districts with growing enrollments. Governor Vilsack is now trying to get a five-year plan
approved which would further increase education spending, limit K-3 class sizes to 17 students,
and demand accountability from local school districts. The legislature likely will pass a
weakened version of the plan.
Governor Vilsack has put forth a plan which addresses education, treatment and law
enforcement. The most controversial part of his plan calls for mandatory life sentences for
those caught selling meth to children. Republicans are debating the issue. This stance has
4
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made Vilsack appear to be the hawk and Republicans the doves when it comes to getting tough
with drug pushers.
Vilsack and his Lt. Governor, Sally Pederson, have a very strong partnership, much like your
relationship with the Vice President. Vilsack and Pederson are developing a reinventing government
initiative, modeled after the Vice President's NPR program.
New Jersey: Wednesday's surprise announcement by Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) have
Governor Christie Todd Whitman (R) seriously weighing a bid for the Senate. Whitman's
moderate policies as governor nearly guarantee her a primary challenge from the conservative
wing of the party, and a primary could drive a large wedge in the New Jersey GOP. In 1994,
Lautenberg beat Chuck Hayataian (R) 50% - 47% in a very bitter race. In 1988, Lautenberg won the
Senate seat 54% - 46% over Peter Dawkins (R).
Attachments: Map of Partisan Control of Governorships in 1999 .
Map of 1999 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of 2000 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of 2000 U.S. Senate Elections by Partisan Status
5
==================== ATTACHMENT 1 ====================
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
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Hex-Dump Conversion
March 5, 2010
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM: MINYON MOORE AND ANDREW MAYOCK
SUBJECT: Governors Political Briefing: Races 1999-2000
This memo overviews the 1999-2000 gubernatorial races and reviews the current political situations in
affected states. Several "hot" issues developing in Alabama, Iowa and New Jersey are also examined
in more detail at the end of the memo.
1998 Elections: The 1998 elections left the overall gubernatorial situation largely unaffected. The
Republicans lost one governorship, but retained control of the top job in 31 states; and Democrats
continued to hold 17 governorships, plus four territories. Jesse Ventura became the first Reform Party
governor, and Angus King remains the only Independent governor. Despite what this straight
numbers analysis might indicate, the 1998 elections tell a much more dynamic political story.
Democrats suffered setbacks by losing open seats in the West -- Colorado, Nevada and Oklahoma -- in
addition to the critical Florida governship. But they also made key gains -- in the South with victories
by Hodges in South Carolina, Siegelman in Alabama and Barnes in Georgia, and in the West and
Midwest with Davis (CA) and Vilsack (IA), respectively.
1999-2000 Elections: In the next two-year election cycle 14 governships will come up for election - -
three seats in 1999 (Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi), and 11 seats in 2000 (Delaware, Missouri,
Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Utah, Washington and
West Virginia). It is early in the cycle, but no major realignment is expected to take place.
Incumbents are expected to run in all but five states: Mississippi, Delaware, Missouri, Montana and
North Carolina. In the best case scenario, Democrats could pick up two seats overall and solidify our
southern resurgence, if we held all seven incumbents seats, held on to the three open Democratic seats
in Missouri, North Carolina and Delaware and won the two Republican open seats in Mississippi and
Montana. Of the five open races in the 1999 - 2000 cycle, three will be closely followed--
Mississippi, North Carolina and Missouri -- and will be viewed as bellweathers of the political mood of
the country and the strength of the parties.
1999 GOVERNORS' RACES
In 1999, incumbents are expected to easily win in Kentucky and Louisiana. Mississippi is an open
seat and provides Democrats with a serious opportunity for a pick up.
Mississippi: Governor Kirk Fordice (R) is limited by state law from seeking a third term. Before
Fordice, Mississippi had not elected a Republican governor since 1874, and during both of his races
Fordice faced tough opposition. March 2 is the filing deadline, and to date, Lt. Gov. Ronnie
Musgrove (D) is the only big-name contender to officially declare his intention to run. Rep. Mike
Hex-Dump Conversion
Parker (R) is expected to seek the Republican nomination. This past Friday, we met with Musgrove
who is upbeat and strongly conveyed to us that he will run a moderate campaign.
Kentucky: In 1995, Governor Paul Patton (D) was elected with 51 % of the vote. Governor
Patton and Lt. Governor Steve Henry (D) filed their reelection papers on January 25. Patton
will not face any primary opposition in May and is expected to face a nominal challenge in the
general election in November.
Louisiana: Since his election in 1995, Governor Mike Foster (R) has consistently posted approval
ratings over 70. A Southern Media & Opinion poll conducted January 21-25 showed Foster
with a 79% job approval rating. The Governor raised nearly $2 million for his reelection campaign
this year, although he says that he has not yet decided whether he will run. To date, Rep. William
Jefferson (D) is the only Democrat who has announced his candidacy for the race.
2000 GoVERNORS' RACES
In 2000, four of the 11 governorships up for election are held by Republicans and seven are held by
Democrats. Of the four Republican seats, only one is expected to be open, while three of the seven
Democratic seats will be open. The four incumbent Democrats who are expected to run again are
O'Bannon (IN), Dean (VT), Shaheen (NH) and Locke (WA). Their seats appear to be "safe." The
three "safe" Republican incumbents are Schafer (ND), Leavitt (UT) and Underwood (WV). The three
open seats held by Democrats (Delaware, Missouri and North Carolina) may prove challenging to hold.
The open Montana seat provides Democrats with the best opportunity for picking up a currently
Republican held state.
Open Seats
Delaware: Governor Thomas Carper (D) cannot run in 2000, because of state-imposed term limits.
In 1996, he defeated state Treasurer Janet Rzewnicki (R), 70% - 31 %. Lt. Governor Ruth Minner (D),
is the only candidate to announce her intention to run for governor and already has raised over
$325,000 for her campaign. Other potential candidates include: Delaware Speaker of the House
Terry Spence (R); businessman and ex-Dupont executive Dennis Rochford (R); Chamber of
Commerce President John Burris (R); and Attorney General M. Jane Brady (R).
Note: Governor Carper is seriously considering a bid for u.s. Senate. Incumbent Senator
William Roth (R) has not announced his intentions for 2000, although most analysts expect him
to run for another term. At the request of the DSCC, Vice President Gore will call Governor
Carper this week to urge him to run. Former governor and current Representative Tom Castle
(R) will run for the Republican nomination if Roth does not, and he has not ruled out a primary
challenge to Roth, although it is unlikely.
Missouri: Outgoing Governor Mel Carnahan (D) is term limited and is running for the Senate
against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (R). Rep. Jim Talent (R) kicked off his campaign for
governor last week and plans to focus his campaign on lowering taxes, fixing public education
2
Hex-Dump Conversion
and improving highways. Talent will face state Treasurer Bob Holden (D) in the general
election next year.
Montana: Montana offers Democrats one of their best opportunities to pick up a governorship.
Governor Marc Racicot (R), who is quite popular, is term limited. In 1992, he beat Dorothy
Bradley (D) 51 % - 49%. Racicot won in 1996, defeating Judy Jacobson (D) 79% - 19%. The
prospective Democratic candidates are all fairly strong candidates with good name recognition.
On the Republican side, no viable candidate has emerged from a field that is largely unknown
and at the far right of the party. To date, Secretary of State Mike Cooney (D) is the only
announced candidate for the governor in 2000. Other Democrats expected to join the primary
race are Attorney General Joe Mazurek (D) and State Auditor Mark O'Keefe (D). The primary
is slated for June 2000.
North Carolina: Governor Jim Hunt (D) is term-limited. In 1996, he defeated Robin Hayes (R)
56% - 43%. North Carolina is shaping up like recent races in Alabama and South Carolina, where the
lottery-education issue is at the center of the campaign. Lt. Governor Dennis Wicker (D) and Attorney
General Mike Easley (D), the leading potential Democratic candidates, support the lottery. All three
likely GOP hopefuls for governor are lottery opponents.
Democratic Incumbents
Indiana: In 1996, Governor Frank O'Bannon (D) came from behind to defeat Indianapolis Mayor
Steve Goldsmith (R) 52 - 47. He served as Lt. Governor for eight years under then Governor
Evan Bayh (D). He consistently posts approval ratings in the 70 s, and is in strong shape for his
reelection campaign next year. .
New Hampshire: Gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire are held every two years. Governor
Jeanne Shaheen in expected to run and win again in 2000. In 1998, she won a second term as
governor 65% - 35% over Jay Lucas. In 1996, she won a first term by defeating Ovide Lamontagne
(R) 57% - 40%.
Vermont: Gubernatorial elections in Vermont are also held every two years. Governor Howard
Dean (D), who first assumed office in '91, won his bid for reelection last November by defeating Ruth
Dwyer (R) 56% to 41 %. Dean served as DGA chair in 1997-98.
Washington: Governor Gary Locke (D-WA) faces reelection in 2000. He was first elected in 1996
by defeating his Republican opponent Ellen Craswell (R), 58% - 42%. Locke made history in 1996 by
becoming the nation's first elected Chinese-American governor. Locke has been a very popular
governor. To date, he faces no primary opponent. On the Republican side, 1998 senate nominee and
former Rep. Linda Smith is likely to run.
Republican Incumbents
North Dakota: While Gov. Edward Schafer (R) has not announced whether he will run in 2000,
it is likely that he will. In 1992, Schafer won the governship by defeating Nicholas Spaeth (D)
58% - 41 %. In 1996, Schafer beat Lee Kaldor (D) 66% - 34% to retain his seat.
3
Hex-Dump Conversion
Utah: Governor Leavitt CR) is expected to run and win easily in 2000. Recently, he has emerged as
a strong voice of reform in the aftermath of the Olympic scandal. In 1996, Leavitt beat Jim Bradley
CD) 75% - 23% for a second term.
West Virginia: Governor Cecil Underwood CR) was first elected governor in 1956, making him
the nation's youngest governor at age 34. When he was reelected in 1996, he became the
nation's oldest governor at age 74. Former state tax secretary James Paige III (D) filed
pre-candidacy papers announcing his decision to run for Governor. Paige joins Rep. Bob Wise
(D) and Charleston Attorney Jim Lees (D) as the likely candidates in the race to unseat Governor
Underwood.
HOT ISSUES
We wanted to brief you on a few "hot" issues facing governors who do not face races in 1999-2000,
but which we felt should be noted for you.
Alabama: Governor Don Siegelman CD) defeated Fob James last November 58% - 42% to win his
first term as governor. The biggest question in Alabama right now is whether Siegelman will get
the education lottery on which he campaigned. The lottery will require a constitutional
amendment, and Siegelman will have a tough time getting a lottery special election bill passed by
the legislature when they convene next month. Religious and conservative groups are still very
much against the plan. On his first day in office, Siegelman signed an executive order .
instructing school administrators to begin the process of removing portable classrooms.
Iowa: In a dramatic come-from-behind race, state Senator Vilsack (D) defeated former Rep.
Jim Ross Lightfoot (R) 53% - 46% to become Iowa's first Democratic governor in 30 years. He
follows Governor Terry Branstad (R), who had served as governor since 1983.
A Des Moines Register poll conducted January 22 - 25 showed Governor Tom Vilsack's (D) job
approval rating is 57%, his disapproval rating is only 5%, while 38% were unsure.
The two hottest issues in the Iowa state legislature are education initiatives and
methamphetamine use. The Governor and the Legislature have agreed on a three-part school
finance package that includes a 4% increase in per-pupil spending for the 2001 budget year, a
guarantee that school districts with enrollment losses would be allowed to spend the same
amount next year on regular programs as this year, and accelerated state aid totaling $4 million
for districts with growing enrollments. Governor Vilsack is now trying to get a five-year plan
approved which would further increase education spending, limit K-3 class sizes to 17 students,
and demand accountability from local school districts. The legislature likely will pass a
weakened version of the plan.
Governor Vilsack has put forth a plan which addresses education, treatment and law
enforcement. The most controversial part of his plan calls for mandatory life sentences for
those caught selling meth to children. Republicans are debating the issue. This stance has
4
Hex-Dump Conversion
made Vilsack appear to be the hawk and Republicans the doves when it comes to getting tough
with drug pushers.
Vilsack and his Lt. Governor, Sally Pederson, have a very strong partnership, much like your
relationship with the Vice President. Vilsack and Pederson are developing a reinventing government
initiative, modeled after the Vice President's NPR program.
New Jersey: Wednesday's surprise announcement by Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) have
Governor Christie Todd Whitman (R) seriously weighing a bid for the Senate. Whitman's
moderate policies as governor nearly guarantee her a primary challenge from the conservative
wing of the party, and a primary could drive a large wedge in the New Jersey GOP. In 1994,
Lautenberg beat Chuck Hayataian (R) 50% - 47% in a very bitter race. In 1988, Lautenberg won the
Senate seat 54% - 46% over Peter Dawkins (R).
Attachments: Map of Partisan Control of Governorships in 1999 .
Map of 1999 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of 2000 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of 2000 U.S. Senate Elections by Partisan Status
5
FYI: Attached is OPA's "Governors Political Briefing: Races 1999-2000."
Unable to convert ARMS_EXT: [ATTACH.D43)MAIL40388355W.036 to ASCII,
The following is a HEX DUMP:
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FC4AB839FC1F48B71E513609830BCD2C428CA31E1FCCC1D2C131CD2EAC4666E71B4555C1CBB51F
7FFB7F565E58F97A582BC538DA55D3473E35033A5DB6B1E2E287C73E280B42D346EC69852B3879
Hex-Dump Conversion
March 4,2010
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM: MINYON MOORE AND ANDREW MAYOCK
SUBJECT: Governors Political Briefing: Races 1999-2000
This memo overviews the 1999-2000 gubernatorial races and reviews the current political situations in
. affected states. Several "hot" issues developing in Alabama, Iowa and New Jersey are also examined
in more detail at the end of the memo.
1998 Elections: The 1998 elections left the overall gubernatorial situation largely unaffected. The
Republicans lost one governorship, but retained control of the top job in 31 states; and Democrats
continued to hold 17 governorships, plus four territories. Jesse Ventura became the first Reform Party
governor, and Angus King remains the only Independent governor. Despite what this straight
numbers analysis might indicate, the 1998 elections tell a much more dynamic political story.
Democrats suffered setbacks by losing open seats in the West -- Colorado, Nevada and Oklahoma -- in
addition to the critical Florida governship. But they also made key gains -- in the South with victories
by Hodges in South Carolina, Siegelman in Alabama and Barnes in Georgia, and in the West and
Midwest with Davis (CA) and Vilsack (IA), respectively.
1999-2000 Elections: In the next two-year election cycle 14 governships will come up for election - -
three seats in 1999 (Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi), and 11 seats in 2000 (Delaware, Missouri,
Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Utah, Washington and
West Virginia). It is early in the cycle, but no major realignment is expected to take place.
Incumbents are expected to ru~ in all but five states: Mississippi, Delaware, Missouri, Montana and
North Carolina. In the best case scenario, Democrats could pick up two seats overall and solidify our
southern resurgence, if we held all seven incumbents seats, held on to the three open Democratic seats
in Missouri, North Carolina and Delaware and won the two Republican open seats in Mississippi and
Montana. Of the five open races in the 1999 - 2000 cycle, three will be closely followed --
Mississippi, North Carolina and Missouri -- and will be viewed as bellweathers of the political mood of
the country and the strength of the parties.
1999 GOVERNORS' RACES
In 1999, incumbents are expected to easily win in Kentucky and Louisiana. Mississippi is an open
seat and provides Democrats with a serious opportunity for a pick up.
Mississippi: Governor Kirk Fordice (R) is limited by state law from seeking a third term. Before
Fordice, Mississippi had not elected a Republican governor since 1874, and during both of his races
Fordice faced tough opposition. March 2 is the filing deadline, and to date, Lt. Gov. Ronnie
Musgrove (D) is the only big-name contender to officially declare his intention to run. Rep. Mike
HexDump Com'crsion
Parker (R) is expected to seek the Republican nomination. This past Friday, we met with Musgrove
who is upbeat and strongly conveyed to us that he will run a moderate campaign.
Kentucky: In 1995, Governor Paul Patton (D) was elected with 51 % of the vote. Governor
Patton and Lt. Governor Steve Henry (D) filed their reelection papers on January 25. Patton
will not face any primary opposition in May and is expected to face a nominal challenge in the
general election in November.
Louisiana: Since his election in 1995, Governor Mike Foster (R) has consistently posted approval
ratings over 70. A Southern Media & Opinion poll conducted January 21-25 showed Foster
with a 79% job approval rating. The Governor raised nearly $2 million for his reelection campaign
this year, although he says that he has not yet decided whether he will run. To date, Rep. William
Jefferson (D) is the only Democrat who has announced his candidacy for the race.
2000 GOVERNORS'RAcES
In 2000, four of the 11 governorships up for election are held by Republicans and seven are held by
Democrats. Of the four Republican seats, only one is expected to be open, while three of the seven
Democratic seats will be open. The four incumbent Democrats who are expected to run again are
O'Bannon (IN), Dean (VT), Shaheen (NH) and Locke (WA). Their seats appear to be "safe." The
three "safe" Republican incumbents are Schafer (ND), Leavitt (UT) and Underwood (WV). The three
open seats held by Democrats (Delaware, Missouri and North Carolina) may prove challenging to hold.
The open Montana seat provides Democrats with the best opportunity for picking up a currently
Republican held state.
Open Seats
Delaware: Governor Thomas Carper (D) cannot run in 2000, because of state-imposed term limits.
In 1996, he defeated state Treasurer Janet Rzewnicki (R), 70% - 31 %. Lt. Governor Ruth Minner (D),
is the only candidate to announce her intention to run for governor and already has raised over
$325,000 for her campaign. Other potential candidates include: Delaware Speaker of the House
Terry Spence (R); busine~sman and ex-Dupont executive Dennis Rochford (R); Chamber of
Commerce President John Burris (R); and Attorney General M. Jane Brady (R).
Note: Governor Carper is seriously considering a bid for U.S. Senate. Incumbent Senator
William Roth (R) has not announced his intentions for 2000, although most analysts expect him
to run for another term. At the request of the DSCC, Vice President Gore will call Governor
Carper this week to urge him to run. Former governor and current Representative Tom Castle
(R) will run for the Republican nomination if Roth does not, and he has not ruled out a primary
challenge to Roth, although it is unlikely.
Missouri: Outgoing Governor Mel Carnahan (D) is term limited and is running for the Senate
against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (R). Rep. Jim Talent (R) kicked off his campaign for
governor last week and plans to focus his campaign on lowering taxes, fixing public education
2
Hex-Dump Conversion
and improving highways. Talent will face state Treasurer Bob Holden (D) in the general
election next year.
Montana: Montana offers Democrats one of their best opportunities to pick up a governorship.
Governor Marc Racicot (R), who is quite popular, is term limited. In 1992, he beat Dorothy
Bradley (D) 51 % - 49%. Racicot won in 1996, defeating Judy Jacobson (D) 79% - 19%. The
prospective Democratic candidates are all fairly strong candidates with good name recognition.
On the Republican side, no viable candidate has emerged from a field that is largely unknown
and at the far right of the party. To date, Secretary of State Mike Cooney (D) is the only
announced candidate for the governor in 2000. Other Democrats expected to join the primary
race are Attorney General Joe Mazurek (D) and State Auditor Mark O'Keefe (D). The primary
is slated for June 2000.
North Carolina: Governor Jim Hunt (D) is term-limited. In 1996, he defeated Robin Hayes (R)
56% - 43%. North Carolina is shaping up like recent races in Alabama and South Carolina, where the
lottery-education issue is at the center of the campaign. Lt. Governor Dennis Wicker (D) and Attorney
General Mike Easley (D), the leading potential Democratic candidates, support the lottery. All three
likely GOP hopefuls for governor are lottery opponents.
Democratic Incumbents
Indiana: In 1996, Governor Frank O'Bannon (D) came from behind to defeat Indianapolis Mayor
Steve Goldsmith (R) 52 - 47. He served as Lt. Governor for eight years under then Governor
Evan Bayh (D). He consistently posts approval ratings in the 70 s, and is in strong shape for his
reelection campaign next year.
New Hampshire: Gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire are held every two years. Governor
Jeanne Shaheen in expected to run and win again in 2000. In 1998, she won a second term as
governor 65% - 35% over Jay Lucas. In 1996, she won a first term by defeating Ovide Lamontagne
(R) 57% - 40%.
Vermont: Gubernatorial elections in Vermont are also held every two years. Governor Howard
Dean (D), who first assumed office in '91, won his bid for reelection last November by defeating Ruth
Dwyer (R) 56% to 41 %. Dean served as DGA chair in 1997-98.
Washington: Governor Gary Locke (D-W A) faces reelection in 2000. He was first elected in 1996
by defeating his Republican opponent Ellen Craswell (R), 58% - 42%. Locke made history in 1996 by
becoming the nation's first elected Chinese-American governor. Locke has been a very popular
governor. To date, he faces no primary opponent. On the Republican side, 1998 senate nominee and
former Rep. Linda Smith is likely to run.
Republican Incumbents
North Dakota: While Gov. Edward Schafer (R) has not announced whether he will run in 2000,
it is likely that he will. In 1992, Schafer won the governship by defeating Nicholas Spaeth (D)
58% - 41 %. In 1996, Schafer beat Lee Kaldor (D) 66% - 34% to retain his seat.
3
HeXDump Conversion
Utah: Governor Leavitt (R) is expected to run and win easily in 2000. Recently, he has emerged as
a strong voice of reform in the aftermath of the Olympic scandal. In 1996, Leavitt beat Jim Bradley
(D) 75% - 23% for a second term.
West Virginia: Governor Cecil Underwood (R) was first elected governor in 1956, making him
the nation's youngest governor at age 34. When he was reelected in 1996, he became the
nation's oldest governor at age 74. Former state tax secretary James Paige III (D) filed
pre-candidacy papers announcing his decision to run for Governor. Paige joins Rep. Bob Wise
(D) and Charleston Attorney Jim Lees (D) as the likely candidates in the race to unseat Governor
Underwood.
HOT ISSUES
We wanted to brief you on a few "hot" issues facing governors who do not face races in 1999-2000,
but which we felt should be noted for you.
Alabama: Governor Don Siegelman (D) defeated Fob James last November 58% - 42% to win his
first term as governor. The biggest question in Alabama right now is whether Siegelman will get
the education lottery on which he campaigned. The lottery will require a constitutional
amendment, and Siegelman will have a tough time getting a lottery special election bill passed by
the legislature when they convene next month. Religious and conservative groups are still very
much against the plan. On his first day in office, Siegelman signed an executive order
instructing school administrators to begin the process of removing portable classrooms.
Iowa: In a dramatic come-from-behind race, state Senator Vilsack (D) defeated former Rep.
Jim Ross Lightfoot (R) 53% - 46% to become Iowa's first Democratic governor in 30 years. He
follows Governor Terry Branstad (R), who had served as governor since 1983.
A Des Moines Register poll conducted January 22 - 25 showed Governor Tom Vilsack's (D) job
approval rating is 57%, his disapproval rating is only 5%, while 38% were unsure.
The two hottest issues in the Iowa state legislature are education initiatives and
methamphetamine use. The Governor and the Legislature have agreed on a three-part school
finance package that includes a 4% increase in per-pupil spending for the 2001 budget year, a
guarantee that school districts with enrollment losses would be allowed to spend the same
amount next year on regular programs as this year, and accelerated state aid totaling $4 million
for districts with growing enrollments. Governor Vilsack is now trying to get a five-year plan
approved which would further increase education spending, limit K-3 class sizes to 17 students,
and demand accountability from local school districts. The legislature likely will pass a
weakened version of the plan.
Governor Vilsack has put forth a plan which addresses education, treatment and law
enforcement. The most controversial part of his plan calls for mandatory life sentences for
those caught selling meth to children. RepUblicans are debating the issue. This stance has
4
Hex-Dump Conversion
made Vilsack appear to be the hawk and Republicans the doves when it comes to getting tough
with drug pushers.
Vilsack and his Lt. Governor, Sally Pederson, have a very strong partnership, much like your
relationship with the Vice President. Vii sack and Pederson are developing a reinventing government
initiative, modeled after the Vice President's NPR program.
New Jersey: Wednesday's surprise announcement by Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) have
Governor Christie Todd Whitman (R) seriously weighing a bid for the Senate. Whitman's
moderate policies as governor nearly guarantee her a primary challenge from the conservative
wing of the party, and a primary could drive a large wedge in the New Jersey GOP. In 1994,
Lautenberg beat Chuck Hayataian (R) 50% - 47% in a very bitter race. In 1988, Lautenberg won the
Senate seat 54% - 46% over Peter Dawkins (R).
Attachments: Map of Partisan Control of Governorships in 1999
Map of 1999 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of2000 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of2000 U.S. Senate Elections by Partisan Status
5
EMAILS RECEIVED
ARMS - BOX 090 - FOLDER -003
[02/22/1999]
==================== ATTACHMENT 1 ====================
ATT CREATION TIME/DATE: 0 00:00:00.00
TEXT:
Unable to convert ARMS_EXT: [ATTACH.D43)MAIL40388355W.036 to ASCII,
The following is a HEX DUMP:
FF575043FF060000010A020100000002050000004052000000020000771C182912C90BB84298D3
D823A2DE909C009BAAE3E96B6D619C33D337E30D259DF8281FC5D044B1A04DOCA30F3B7E8D9996
FC4AB839FC1F48B71E513609830BCD2C428CA31E1FCCC1D2C131CD2EAC4666E71B4555C1CBB51F
7FFB7F565E58F97A582BC538DA55D3473E35033A5DB6B1E2E287C73E280B42D346EC69852B3879
Hex-Dump Conversion
March 4,2010
MEMORANDUM FOR THE PRESIDENT
FROM: MINYON MOORE AND ANDREW MAYOCK
SUBJECT: Governors Political Briefing: Races 1999-2000
This memo overviews the 1999-2000 gubernatorial races and reviews the current political situations in
. affected states. Several "hot" issues developing in Alabama, Iowa and New Jersey are also examined
in more detail at the end of the memo.
1998 Elections: The 1998 elections left the overall gubernatorial situation largely unaffected. The
Republicans lost one governorship, but retained control of the top job in 31 states; and Democrats
continued to hold 17 governorships, plus four territories. Jesse Ventura became the first Reform Party
governor, and Angus King remains the only Independent governor. Despite what this straight
numbers analysis might indicate, the 1998 elections tell a much more dynamic political story.
Democrats suffered setbacks by losing open seats in the West -- Colorado, Nevada and Oklahoma -- in
addition to the critical Florida governship. But they also made key gains -- in the South with victories
by Hodges in South Carolina, Siegelman in Alabama and Barnes in Georgia, and in the West and
Midwest with Davis (CA) and Vilsack (IA), respectively.
1999-2000 Elections: In the next two-year election cycle 14 governships will come up for election - -
three seats in 1999 (Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi), and 11 seats in 2000 (Delaware, Missouri,
Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Vermont, Utah, Washington and
West Virginia). It is early in the cycle, but no major realignment is expected to take place.
Incumbents are expected to ru~ in all but five states: Mississippi, Delaware, Missouri, Montana and
North Carolina. In the best case scenario, Democrats could pick up two seats overall and solidify our
southern resurgence, if we held all seven incumbents seats, held on to the three open Democratic seats
in Missouri, North Carolina and Delaware and won the two Republican open seats in Mississippi and
Montana. Of the five open races in the 1999 - 2000 cycle, three will be closely followed --
Mississippi, North Carolina and Missouri -- and will be viewed as bellweathers of the political mood of
the country and the strength of the parties.
1999 GOVERNORS' RACES
In 1999, incumbents are expected to easily win in Kentucky and Louisiana. Mississippi is an open
seat and provides Democrats with a serious opportunity for a pick up.
Mississippi: Governor Kirk Fordice (R) is limited by state law from seeking a third term. Before
Fordice, Mississippi had not elected a Republican governor since 1874, and during both of his races
Fordice faced tough opposition. March 2 is the filing deadline, and to date, Lt. Gov. Ronnie
Musgrove (D) is the only big-name contender to officially declare his intention to run. Rep. Mike
HexDump Com'crsion
Parker (R) is expected to seek the Republican nomination. This past Friday, we met with Musgrove
who is upbeat and strongly conveyed to us that he will run a moderate campaign.
Kentucky: In 1995, Governor Paul Patton (D) was elected with 51 % of the vote. Governor
Patton and Lt. Governor Steve Henry (D) filed their reelection papers on January 25. Patton
will not face any primary opposition in May and is expected to face a nominal challenge in the
general election in November.
Louisiana: Since his election in 1995, Governor Mike Foster (R) has consistently posted approval
ratings over 70. A Southern Media & Opinion poll conducted January 21-25 showed Foster
with a 79% job approval rating. The Governor raised nearly $2 million for his reelection campaign
this year, although he says that he has not yet decided whether he will run. To date, Rep. William
Jefferson (D) is the only Democrat who has announced his candidacy for the race.
2000 GOVERNORS'RAcES
In 2000, four of the 11 governorships up for election are held by Republicans and seven are held by
Democrats. Of the four Republican seats, only one is expected to be open, while three of the seven
Democratic seats will be open. The four incumbent Democrats who are expected to run again are
O'Bannon (IN), Dean (VT), Shaheen (NH) and Locke (WA). Their seats appear to be "safe." The
three "safe" Republican incumbents are Schafer (ND), Leavitt (UT) and Underwood (WV). The three
open seats held by Democrats (Delaware, Missouri and North Carolina) may prove challenging to hold.
The open Montana seat provides Democrats with the best opportunity for picking up a currently
Republican held state.
Open Seats
Delaware: Governor Thomas Carper (D) cannot run in 2000, because of state-imposed term limits.
In 1996, he defeated state Treasurer Janet Rzewnicki (R), 70% - 31 %. Lt. Governor Ruth Minner (D),
is the only candidate to announce her intention to run for governor and already has raised over
$325,000 for her campaign. Other potential candidates include: Delaware Speaker of the House
Terry Spence (R); busine~sman and ex-Dupont executive Dennis Rochford (R); Chamber of
Commerce President John Burris (R); and Attorney General M. Jane Brady (R).
Note: Governor Carper is seriously considering a bid for U.S. Senate. Incumbent Senator
William Roth (R) has not announced his intentions for 2000, although most analysts expect him
to run for another term. At the request of the DSCC, Vice President Gore will call Governor
Carper this week to urge him to run. Former governor and current Representative Tom Castle
(R) will run for the Republican nomination if Roth does not, and he has not ruled out a primary
challenge to Roth, although it is unlikely.
Missouri: Outgoing Governor Mel Carnahan (D) is term limited and is running for the Senate
against incumbent Senator John Ashcroft (R). Rep. Jim Talent (R) kicked off his campaign for
governor last week and plans to focus his campaign on lowering taxes, fixing public education
2
Hex-Dump Conversion
and improving highways. Talent will face state Treasurer Bob Holden (D) in the general
election next year.
Montana: Montana offers Democrats one of their best opportunities to pick up a governorship.
Governor Marc Racicot (R), who is quite popular, is term limited. In 1992, he beat Dorothy
Bradley (D) 51 % - 49%. Racicot won in 1996, defeating Judy Jacobson (D) 79% - 19%. The
prospective Democratic candidates are all fairly strong candidates with good name recognition.
On the Republican side, no viable candidate has emerged from a field that is largely unknown
and at the far right of the party. To date, Secretary of State Mike Cooney (D) is the only
announced candidate for the governor in 2000. Other Democrats expected to join the primary
race are Attorney General Joe Mazurek (D) and State Auditor Mark O'Keefe (D). The primary
is slated for June 2000.
North Carolina: Governor Jim Hunt (D) is term-limited. In 1996, he defeated Robin Hayes (R)
56% - 43%. North Carolina is shaping up like recent races in Alabama and South Carolina, where the
lottery-education issue is at the center of the campaign. Lt. Governor Dennis Wicker (D) and Attorney
General Mike Easley (D), the leading potential Democratic candidates, support the lottery. All three
likely GOP hopefuls for governor are lottery opponents.
Democratic Incumbents
Indiana: In 1996, Governor Frank O'Bannon (D) came from behind to defeat Indianapolis Mayor
Steve Goldsmith (R) 52 - 47. He served as Lt. Governor for eight years under then Governor
Evan Bayh (D). He consistently posts approval ratings in the 70 s, and is in strong shape for his
reelection campaign next year.
New Hampshire: Gubernatorial elections in New Hampshire are held every two years. Governor
Jeanne Shaheen in expected to run and win again in 2000. In 1998, she won a second term as
governor 65% - 35% over Jay Lucas. In 1996, she won a first term by defeating Ovide Lamontagne
(R) 57% - 40%.
Vermont: Gubernatorial elections in Vermont are also held every two years. Governor Howard
Dean (D), who first assumed office in '91, won his bid for reelection last November by defeating Ruth
Dwyer (R) 56% to 41 %. Dean served as DGA chair in 1997-98.
Washington: Governor Gary Locke (D-W A) faces reelection in 2000. He was first elected in 1996
by defeating his Republican opponent Ellen Craswell (R), 58% - 42%. Locke made history in 1996 by
becoming the nation's first elected Chinese-American governor. Locke has been a very popular
governor. To date, he faces no primary opponent. On the Republican side, 1998 senate nominee and
former Rep. Linda Smith is likely to run.
Republican Incumbents
North Dakota: While Gov. Edward Schafer (R) has not announced whether he will run in 2000,
it is likely that he will. In 1992, Schafer won the governship by defeating Nicholas Spaeth (D)
58% - 41 %. In 1996, Schafer beat Lee Kaldor (D) 66% - 34% to retain his seat.
3
HeXDump Conversion
Utah: Governor Leavitt (R) is expected to run and win easily in 2000. Recently, he has emerged as
a strong voice of reform in the aftermath of the Olympic scandal. In 1996, Leavitt beat Jim Bradley
(D) 75% - 23% for a second term.
West Virginia: Governor Cecil Underwood (R) was first elected governor in 1956, making him
the nation's youngest governor at age 34. When he was reelected in 1996, he became the
nation's oldest governor at age 74. Former state tax secretary James Paige III (D) filed
pre-candidacy papers announcing his decision to run for Governor. Paige joins Rep. Bob Wise
(D) and Charleston Attorney Jim Lees (D) as the likely candidates in the race to unseat Governor
Underwood.
HOT ISSUES
We wanted to brief you on a few "hot" issues facing governors who do not face races in 1999-2000,
but which we felt should be noted for you.
Alabama: Governor Don Siegelman (D) defeated Fob James last November 58% - 42% to win his
first term as governor. The biggest question in Alabama right now is whether Siegelman will get
the education lottery on which he campaigned. The lottery will require a constitutional
amendment, and Siegelman will have a tough time getting a lottery special election bill passed by
the legislature when they convene next month. Religious and conservative groups are still very
much against the plan. On his first day in office, Siegelman signed an executive order
instructing school administrators to begin the process of removing portable classrooms.
Iowa: In a dramatic come-from-behind race, state Senator Vilsack (D) defeated former Rep.
Jim Ross Lightfoot (R) 53% - 46% to become Iowa's first Democratic governor in 30 years. He
follows Governor Terry Branstad (R), who had served as governor since 1983.
A Des Moines Register poll conducted January 22 - 25 showed Governor Tom Vilsack's (D) job
approval rating is 57%, his disapproval rating is only 5%, while 38% were unsure.
The two hottest issues in the Iowa state legislature are education initiatives and
methamphetamine use. The Governor and the Legislature have agreed on a three-part school
finance package that includes a 4% increase in per-pupil spending for the 2001 budget year, a
guarantee that school districts with enrollment losses would be allowed to spend the same
amount next year on regular programs as this year, and accelerated state aid totaling $4 million
for districts with growing enrollments. Governor Vilsack is now trying to get a five-year plan
approved which would further increase education spending, limit K-3 class sizes to 17 students,
and demand accountability from local school districts. The legislature likely will pass a
weakened version of the plan.
Governor Vilsack has put forth a plan which addresses education, treatment and law
enforcement. The most controversial part of his plan calls for mandatory life sentences for
those caught selling meth to children. RepUblicans are debating the issue. This stance has
4
Hex-Dump Conversion
made Vilsack appear to be the hawk and Republicans the doves when it comes to getting tough
with drug pushers.
Vilsack and his Lt. Governor, Sally Pederson, have a very strong partnership, much like your
relationship with the Vice President. Vii sack and Pederson are developing a reinventing government
initiative, modeled after the Vice President's NPR program.
New Jersey: Wednesday's surprise announcement by Senator Frank Lautenberg (D) have
Governor Christie Todd Whitman (R) seriously weighing a bid for the Senate. Whitman's
moderate policies as governor nearly guarantee her a primary challenge from the conservative
wing of the party, and a primary could drive a large wedge in the New Jersey GOP. In 1994,
Lautenberg beat Chuck Hayataian (R) 50% - 47% in a very bitter race. In 1988, Lautenberg won the
Senate seat 54% - 46% over Peter Dawkins (R).
Attachments: Map of Partisan Control of Governorships in 1999
Map of 1999 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of2000 Governor Elections by Partisan Status
Map of2000 U.S. Senate Elections by Partisan Status
5
EMAILS RECEIVED
ARMS - BOX 090 - FOLDER -003
[02/22/1999]
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